vara bungas: Visu 18 US izlūkošanas aģentūru kopdarbs par klimata pārmaiņu tēmu. Bez sensācijām, bet dažas vietas es pasvītrotu.
VB: pertokrātijas nebankrotēs, dekarbonizācijas mērķi netiks sasniegti, klimata izmaiņas attīstīsies pēs sliktākā scenārija (+3C un vairāk):
[..] The current pace of transition to low- or zero-emission clean energy sources is not fast enough to avoid
temperatures rising above the Paris goal of 1.5˚C.Global energy demand is expected to increase by more
than 18 percent by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) modeling of current policies,
with fossil fuel use also growing and continuing to account for only a modestly smaller share of supply even
though solar, wind, and other clean sources will grow more quickly, particularly after 2030. [..]
VB: Nesadalītu Arktikas daļu dalīs, kāda ir LV daļa pie dalīšanas?
[..] We assess that Arctic and non-Arctic states almost certainly will increase their competitive activities as
the region becomes more accessible because of warming temperatures and reduced ice. Competition
will be largely economic but the risk of miscalculation will increase modestly by 2040 as commercial and military activity grows and opportunities are more contested. [..]
VB: “Kā šiem neiet…” atbalsosies pie mūsu austrumu robežas. Robežsardzes loma valsts drošībā pieaugs, laiks viņus aicināt atpakaļ uz NBS, tā kā tā bez armijas atbalsta RS neiztiks.
[..] We judge that cross-border migration probably will increase as climate effects put added stress on
internally displaced populations already struggling under poor governance, violent conflict, and
environmental degradation. Triggers for increased migration are likely to include droughts, more intense
cyclones—with accompanying storm surges—and floods. Given the multiple factors that drive migration
and the uncertainties in regional climate models, we are unable to project total numbers of climate migrants.
However, countries and displaced people will increasingly see climate change as a driver, and it will
contribute to instability when it upsets socioeconomic, political, and demographic dynamics, and strains ties
between originating and receiving countries. [..]
VB: Nepirktu zēmi ģimenes mājai “ar skatu uz jūru” un polderos
[..] New observations could indicate the irreversible and significantly faster than expected melting of Greenland and the West and East Antarctic glaciers—which currently are modeled to raise sea levels by upwards of a quarter meter by 2040, and more than one meter by 2100 under a high emissions scenario—could threaten hundreds of millions of people living in coastal communities. [..]
VB: Nu, tas par Āfriku, uz mums neattiecas
[..] Under-resourced and ill-equipped militaries will face severe strains when they are called upon to respond to more natural disasters in their own and neighboring countries [..]