labs, bet slikts

[..] Dropped of at Riga airport by a Russian speaking Latvian taxi driver a few weeks ago the need for nuanced understanding was clearly demonstrated. We had exchanged a few pleasantries in Russian and he seemed a jovial fellow. Asked if he thought President Putin was good he looked over his shoulder at me, smiled and made a fist with his hand, enthusiastically moving it up and down: “Putin Good – Putin Strong”. But when asked if he thought President Putin should be President of Latvia his face changed dramatically and his big head shook emphatically. “No, No. Putin bad for Latvia, bad for me”. [..]

vara bungas: Stāsts no  NAA Drošības un stratēģiskās pētniecības centra vadošā pētnieka Stīva Tethema raksta, kas izdots ar NAA atbalstu. Interesanta doma, ka indivīdu aptaujas ir nederīgas, lai prognozētu to pašu indivīdu uzvedību grupā, ko būtu jāpēta tieši kā grupu. Tas pats šoferis no augstāk minētās anekdotes kā Latvijas krieviski domājošo  kopienas dalībnieks  atzīst putinismu par poztīvu parādību (Putins aizstāv krieviski domājošos), bet kā indivīds negrib piedzīvot šo aizstāvību savā mājā – Latvijā (lai Putins aizstāv krievus citur). Pēc būtības tas nozīmē, ka jaukie un miermīlīgie kaimiņi (vērtējot katru atsevišķi) var pārvērsties par asinskāriem zombijiem, ja veido un darbojas pūlī. Līdz ar to, lai nenonāktu  briesmās, jānovērš faktori, kas zombē pūļa dalībniekus. Jāizslēdz TV.

[..] So we CAN’T predict group behaviours? Well ‘yes’ and ‘no’. You certainly can’t predict group behaviors from polls with any degree of confidence. Groups behave very differently to individuals and the problem with polls is that they aggregate individual response into group responses. They also presume that expressed opinion and attitudes are good indicators of behaviours. Both of these are risky assumptions; individuals behave differently in groups than as individuals – there are hundreds of studies to prove this – and attitudes are really
weak precursors to behaviors. Once again years and years of social science research show this to be true. But make no mistake, social science research does allow us to predict group behaviours and to a verified and validated high degree of accuracy.[..]