vara bungas: Frīdmens reti kļūdās un (vai jo) pārzina GOP elites aizkulises. Viņš parasti perfekti apkopo un formulē trendus, attiecīgi maksima “vienai pusei jāsagrauj otru”, kas izteikta septembra vidū, ieskicē globālas spriedzes pakāpi, kurai mums būs jātiek pāri, vēlams vienā gabalā.
[..] The fourth strategy is the only one that seems like a real possibility. One side must defeat the other. Neither side can afford the cost of failing such an attack. The Russian advantage is manpower. There are reports from multiple sources, including American ones, of large numbers of Russian troops training in the Russian Far East. The Russians need more troops, so these reports are believable. Russia is not going to defeat an army armed with American weapons with the number of forces it has deployed thus far. The Russians face a choice of attacking with overwhelming force or losing the war. They will choose the former. [..] So long as Putin is president, every effort will be made to win, because he cannot afford anything less than victory. And I don’t see any other possible strategies except the manpower one, which I assume will happen very soon or after the winter. It does not seem to me that the current forces deployed by Russia can do more than hold on to some areas. There needs to be reinforcement. Putin may have other strategies, but they are hard to envision.
George Friedman 13.09.2022.