Sezonas falstarts

vara bungas: Pēc RU eskalētas spriedzes UA austrumos un dienvidos “formālas deeskalācijas” daži novērotāji jūtas vīlušies, citi atviegloti, trešie nesaskata nekādu īpašu deeskalāciju (piemēram VB), jo kaujas darbībai piemērota sezona tikko sākusies (pāris mēnešus agrāk nekā varējām gaidīt) un noslēgsies tikai ar RU mācībām Zapad-2021 koncentrēta karaspēka demobilizāciju (septembra otrā puse – oktobris). Vēršu uzmanību, ka RU atvelk no UA robežas tikai daļu personāla (!), bruņojums pamatā paliek nometnēs (izņemot varbūt Krimu, kas jau ir pārbāzta ar bruņojumu). Baumo, ka jūnijā vai jūlijā kādā vigvamā varētu notikt virsaišu “sapīpēšana”, kuras rezultāti vai to trūkums ietekmēs turpmāko notikumu attīstību. Bet pagaidām kaut kā tā:

[..] The hawks are left off-balance, and next time they start predicting Russian aggression, whether in Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia or wherever, Moscow can point to the 2021 Ukraine Offensive That Never Happened, whether to defang them, or to keep people guessing in case there is a real attack planned that time[..]

avots

Ieskicēšu notikumu un kur zināms arī laika līniju, kam būtu jāpievērš uzmanību šajā militāro manevru sezonā, jo neplānoti atgadījumi saistībā ar šīm atzīmēm var pēkšņi izrādīties ļoti svarīgi, lai neteiktu liktenīgi:

LV:

Namejs-2021 -augusts-septembris

RU:

• BY-RU mācību “Zapad-2021” epizodes jūlijs-septembris ((10.-16.) (faktiski jau notiek) – ne mazāk par 70K dalībnieku.
• KDLO mācības “Nerushimoe bratstvo-2021” – novembris.
• RU-CN mācības “Mirnaja missija-2021” – vasarā
• RU bilaterālās mācības ar Laosu, Šrilanku, Vjetnamu, Mongoliju, Pakistānu un Indiju – pagaidām ziņu maz .

UA:

• UA-US aviācijas mācības Rapid Trident – septembris ap 5K dalībnieku.
• UA-UK mācības Cossack Mace – ap 1K dalībnieku.
• UA-RO flotes un aviācijas mācības Riverine – ap 0,5K dalībnieku.
• UA-NATO flotes mācības Sea Breeze – ap 3K dalībnieku.
• UA-UK aviācijas mācības Warrior Watcher -ap 0,5K dalībnieku.
• UA-PL mācības Silver Saber – ap 0,6K dalībnieku.
• UA-PL mācības Three Swords – ap 1,5K dalībnieku.

NATO mācības Defender Europe -2021 (nepilns epizožu saraksts):

Albania

• Week of April 26 – Joint Logistics Over the Shore operation, Durres (marks the beginning of DEFENDER-Europe 21)
• Week of May 10 – Arrival of U.S. Army Soldiers, Tirana

Bosnia and Herzegovina

• Week of May 10 – Arrival of U.S. Army Soldiers, Sarajevo
• Week of May 10 – arrival of UH-60 helicopters and personnel, Tuzla
• May 22 – U.S. and the Armed Forces of BiH maneuver exercise and Distinguished Visitors day for exercise Immediate Response, Manjaca

Bulgaria

• May 10 – Nighttime airborne operations, Cheshnegirovo
• May 31 – Media and Distinguished Visitors Day for exercises Saber Guardian and Balkan Sentinel, Novo Selo Training Area
• June 1 – High Mobility Artillery Rocket System live fire, Novo Selo Training Area
• June 4 – Media and Distinguished Visitors Day for exercises Saber Guardian and Strike Back, Koren Training Area
• June 10 – Distinguished Visitors Day for exercises Saber Guardian and Shabla, Shabla Training Area

Croatia

• May 7 – Port operations, Zadar
• Week of May 10 – Arrival of U.S. Army Soldiers, Zagreb
• May 19 – Display of air and missile defense equipment with military leaders, Zadar
• May 27 –  Distinguished Visitors Day for exercises Immediate Response and Croatian Rampart, Slunj Training Area

Estonia

• May 5 – Multiple Launch Rocket System live fire, Tapa Training Area
• May 6 – Nighttime airborne operations, Nurmsi
• May 7 – Distinguished visitors meet and greet, Nurmsi
• May 7 – Nighttime air assault operations, Nurmsi

Germany

• Week of May 20 – Arrival of V Corps Soldiers, Nuremberg
• June 3 – Medical exercise and joint large scale medical evacuation, Baumholder Training Area

Greece

• May 7 – Port operations, Alexandroupoli
• May 24 –  Media and Distinguished Visitors Day for exercise Immediate Response, Petrochori Training Area

Hungary

• May 10 – Airborne Operations, Papa Air Base

North Macedonia

• Week of May 10 – Arrival of U.S. Army Soldiers, Skopje
• May 31 – Distinguished Visitor Day for exercises Immediate Response and Decisive Strike, Krivolak Training Area

Romania

• May 10 – Airborne operations with U.S. and Polish Soldiers, Ramnicu Sarat
• June 9 – Air and missile defense live fire, Capui Mida Training Area
• June 13 – NATO Multinational Corps South-East’s command post exercise distinguished visitors day, Bucharest (marks the end of DEFENDER-Europe 21)

United States

• Week of May 3 – 82^nd Airborne Division departs, Fayetteville, N.C.

[..] Russia has a vast army, but as with the Soviets, only parts of it are effective. And as with the Soviets, Russia’s ability to support a massive armored force logistically is unknown. A rapid seizure of the area south of the Pripet Marshes might not strain Russia’s forces, but should the U.S. and NATO rapidly arm Ukrainian forces with anti-tank and anti-air weapons, and support them logistically, a quick win could become a long battle.[..]

George Friedman