Dienas grauds

vara bungas: EE aizejošais militāro izlūku šefs Grosbergs apstiprina, to ko sen novēroju. Jābūt mehānismam, kas neļautu politiķiem “nolaist podā” izlūku sūri-grūti vāktu un analizētu informāciju/brīdinājumus. Kaut kāda uber slepena komisija vai prokuratūra vai “tiesībsargs”, jūs nosauciet.

[..]One of the Defense Forces Intelligence Center’s greatest successes was picking up early on Russia’s intention to annex Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014. “We saw it ahead long enough to make the alarm bells ring both in Estonia and NATO,” Grosberg told The Insider. But at the time, no one at the political level listened. “When we take a look at the international reaction to the [annexation] of Crimea, it is clear that we weren’t listened to. Crimea led to Donbas,” Grosberg said, referring to the Russian-orchestrated launch of a “separatist” campaign to break parts of eastern Ukraine off from the rest of the country. “The result of Donbass is today’s Ukraine.”

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VB: integrālais iemesls kādēļ daudzi RU vērotāji (arī VB) kļūdījās jautājumā par iebrukuma mērogu. Gadu staigājot gar UA robežu RU šķietami pazaudēja pārsteiguma momentu, bet atguva to uzsākot operāciju ar acīmredzami nepietiekamiem resursiem, cerībā uz muļķa veiksmi. Vai arī tā bija “refleksīvās kontroles“operācja?

[..] Although Grosberg’s agency picked up early indications of the 2022 Russian invasion, too, this time they fell short of assessing the start of the war. “When you looked at the composition and concentration of Russia’s forces [along the Ukrainian borders], the answer was that they wouldn’t be able to do it. As it became clear, they really can make very stupid decisions and conduct the operation with only a third of the required forces,” he said. [..]

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VB: Iegaumēsim šo skaitli:

[..] How long will it take Russia to restore its military capabilities after the war? Russia still has roughly 6,000 tanks and between 8,000 and 9,000 armored vehicles in its inventory, Grosberg said. If it needs to “cannibalize” two vehicles in order to get one that actually works, it could still mobilize 2,000 tanks and 3,000 armored vehicles. “Putin has declared that Russia’s aim is to modernize up to 500 tanks a year. According to this calculation they’d be ready to attack a neighbor again in four years.” [..]

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