Kā vecajos aukstajos laikos

[..] The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which placed limits on missile defense, and the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, which limited the number of tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery guns, combat aircraft, and attack helicopters used on the continent, are dead. Meanwhile, the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which bans ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 500–5,500 kilometers (310–3,400 miles), is in big trouble, with both sides accusing each other of violations.

If the INF treaty, a cornerstone of European security, collapses, the New START treaty signed between then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and then U.S. President Barack Obama in 2010 will not be able to survive on its own. The agreement, which reduced the number of strategic nuclear weapons to 700 deployed launchers and 1,550 warheads, would then expire on February 5, 2021, without prolongation. Should this come to pass, the multipolar international system will be thrown into chaos.

To prevent a disastrous clash, the two countries need to maintain and strengthen the arms-control safety net. That’s why it’s necessary to resume a Russian-U.S. dialogue that will lead to official negotiations. For now, the agenda should be narrow, prioritizing three key issues: the preservation of the INF Treaty, the prolongation of the New START treaty, and the prevention of dangerous military accidents.[..]

avots

vara bungas: Garlaicīgi, bet svarīgi. Viena vai otra iemesla dēļ miruši vai pusmiruši ir trīs no četriem RU-US pamatlīgumiem drošības jomās, kas veidoja globālo drošības sistēmu pēc Aukstā kara beigām t.sk. Eiropā. Lai gan mums par balistiskām raķetēm un kodolieročiem ir maza teikšana, līgums par militāro negadījumu novēršanu var būt svarīgs un apspriežams arī 3B militāro aktivitāšu kontekstā.  Tas paredz ilgstošas, bet konstruktīvas  SARUNAS starp US un RU, kas pašreizējā gaisotnē grūti iedomājamas. Alternatīva sarunām kā jau  teikts rakstā  – haoss un nenoteiktība. Kam izdevīga  nedrošības eskalācija  Eiropā? To mēs noskaidrosim tuvāko pāris gadu laikā. Man škiet, ka nospraust spēles noteikumus vēlas abas puses, bet katra no tām centīsies “nomirkšķināt” pēdējā.