vara bungas: Interesants demogrāfiskais apsvērums CN-US kara sakarā. Neviļus jāvelk paralēles, kas denonsē tā jēgu. Viens bērns ģimenē ir arī vairumam amerikāņu. Viens hiperskaņas galviņas trāpījums US avionesējam radīs lielākus zaudējumus nekā jaudas ziņā līdzīgs trāpījums CN militāram objektam uz sauszemes, vienkārši tādēļ, ka jūra ir pagalam nedraudzīga vide un jūrnieki savos posteņos saspiesti plecs pie pleca. Par labu tēzei runā CN pensiju sistēmas īpatnības, bet tās, vajadzības gadījumā, ir viegli labojamas.
[..] But mounting casualties could also affect the morale of China’s civilian population because every member of the People’s Liberation Army killed would likely be an only child, he said. From 1979 until 2015, Chinese families were not allowed to have more than one child.
“Every casualty is going to produce at a minimum two parents and four grandparents who just lost their old age care,” Cheng said. “That’s huge; and yes, they will have died to unify the motherland – when it’s your only grandson; when it is your only daughter who is dying, how well does that go over? We don’t know.” [..]
Lai vai kā, Eiropai un UA jau tagad jākalkulē kā šādu izdevību (CN-US briestošo karu) izmantos RU, kuru vada meistarīgi oportunisti.
UPD1 Fridmens domā, ka ŪS-CN kara nebūs. CN tad jāiebrūk Taivānā (gatavošanos desantam nevar paslēpt) vai citādi jāinicē fizisku kontaktu ar US karaspēku reģionā. Bet CN to nevajag.
[..] From this we can deduce that the focus on Taiwan is meant to increase the sense of imminent war and shape the calculations of the U.S. and those of its allies. It is possible that China intends instead a widescale conflict covering the entire Western Pacific in which China bets everything. But China does not need to bet everything. [..]
vara bungas 