Dienas grauds


[…]the post-Cold War world is ending. Russia is re-emerging in a historically recognizable form. Germany is just beginning the process of redefining itself in Europe, and the EU’s weaknesses have become manifest. Turkey has already taken the first steps toward becoming a regional power. We are at the beginning of a period in which these forces play themselves out.[…]

[…]The single greatest American fear should not be China or al Qaeda. It is the amalgamation of the European Peninsula’s technology with Russia’s natural resources. That would create a power that could challenge American primacy. That was what the 20th century was all about. The German-Russian relationship, however early and subdued it might be, must affect the United States.[…]

George Friedman, STRATFOR

5 domas par “Dienas grauds

  1. Daudzi, tostarp Frīdmans un arī šeit citētais Jakovs Kedmi uzskatīja, ka Krievija jau ir pietiekoši spēcīga un izlēmīga, lai pārņemtu Ukrainu pietiekoši ātri. Tomēr tas nav noticis, un šķiet, ka vairs nenotiks. Tas varētu nozīmēt, ka jaunās Impērijas izredzes nav diezcik spīdošas, ja vien savlaicīgi tiktu sperti pretsoļi. Interesanti, cik aktīva būtu šodien Polija, ja nebūtu notikusi krievu specoperācija pie Smoļenskas. Interesanti, ka Frīdmans nemin Baltijas valstis:
    “Pilsudski had another idea. Germany was in shambles, as was Russia, but both would be back. An alliance in place before they revived would, in Pilsudski’s mind, save the region. His vision was something called the Intermarium — an alliance of the nations between the seas built around Poland and including Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Finland and the Baltic states. This never came to be, but if it had, World War II may never have happened or could have played out in a different way. It is an idea that has been in my mind of late, thinking about what comes after NATO and ambitious concepts of European federation. Pilsudski’s Intermarium makes a kind of logical if not historical sense. It is not historical because this borderland has always been the battleground for others. It has never formed together to determine its fate.”
    “In this case, I am going to explore the theory that Pilsudski brought to the table, of the Intermarium. I regard NATO as a bureaucracy overseeing an alliance whose mission was accomplished 20 years ago. From an American point of view, moving France or Germany is both impossible and pointless. They have their own interests and the wrong geography. It is the Intermarium — Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and perhaps Bulgaria — that represents this generation’s alliance. It blocks the Russians, splits them from the Germans and gently limits Turkey’s encroachment in southeastern Europe.”

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