vara bungas: Divi izcili summējoši raksti no diviem Frīdmeņiem, Lourensa un Džordža. Pirmais ir pat labāks.
[..] The Ukrainians therefore are currently in no position to rush into frontal assaults. They are as likely to rely on steady attrition of Russian front-line forces through directed artillery fire, and insurgent operations behind enemy lines (of the sort that have already been reported in Kherson) to erode Russian strength and morale, taking any opportunities when they arise to eat away at Russian positions and if possible overrun them. Russia must now defend a long front and substantial occupied territory. Its forces are already stretched and Moscow is scrambling to find reserves. The Ukrainians can’t wait too long but they will not want to move hard against Russian strongholds until they are ready. The Russians face many pressures of their own, having used up masses of equipment and stocks, as well as losing many troops, for limited gains. The economic pressures will not abate. Ukraine should still prevail – but it won’t be quick. [..]
[..]How and when the war ends depends on Moscow. Russia’s political process is a mystery. There is always a political structure because someone has to carry out a dictator’s orders, but I have no insight into that. What I do know is that the U.S. can keep doing what it’s doing with minimal risk, and the Ukrainians have no choice but to fight. So Russia will either take the first step or keep fighting, something so far they don’t seem good at. Absent that, be on the lookout for Russian action so dramatic and unnerving that it forces the U.S. and Ukraine to make massive concessions. I doubt nuclear weapons are a viable option. In fact, I doubt Russia will do anything that stunning. So as I see it, the only advice there is for Russia is German Field Marshal Gerd von Rundstedt’s answer to Berlin after D-Day, when he was asked what should be done: “Make peace, you fools.”[..]