Dienas grauds

vara bungas: Vēl viens pamatojums, kādēļ atbilde uz RU taktisko kodolieroču pielietošanu visticamāk nebūs simetriska. Interesanti, ka tēma bija aktuāla arī US demokrātiem.

“[..] In my new book, The Bomb: Presidents, Generals, and the Secret History of Nuclear War, I recount a highly classified war game played by the National Security Council late in the Obama administration. Reports of Russia’s “escalate to de-escalate” strategy were emerging. The idea of the game was to test whether this strategy might indeed thwart America’s ability or will to project power in Europe. The scenario went like this: The Russians invade one of the Baltic states; NATO fights back effectively; to reverse the tide, Russia fires a low-yield nuclear weapon at the NATO troops or at a base in Germany where drones, combat planes, and smart bombs were deployed. The question: What do U.S. decision-makers do next? [..]

Then, Colin Kahl, Vice President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, spoke up. The generals, he said, were missing the big picture. The minute the Russians drop a nuclear bomb, we would face a world-defining moment—the first time an atom bomb had been used in war since 1945. It would be an opportunity to rally the entire world against Russia. If we responded with diplomacy and economic pressure, and by pushing ahead with our conventional advantage, we would isolate and weaken Moscow’s leaders, policies, and military forces. However, if we responded by shooting off some nukes of our own, we would forfeit that advantage and, moreover, normalize the use of nuclear weapons.[..]

[..] Kevin Chilton, a retired Air Force general, argued that if the Russians saw a missile hurtling their way after being fired upon by a Trident submarine, they wouldn’t know whether it was high-yield or low-yield—they would see it as a “strategic” weapon, perhaps the first volley of a much larger attack against Russia, and respond accordingly. [..]


There’s nothing on the missile that flashes “Low Yield! Low Yield!”




2 domas par “Dienas grauds

  1. Tieši tā. Bet – “low-yield” Trident raķešu vienpusēja interpretēšana kā “taktisko” pati par sevi ir eskalācijas stratēģija. Kāpēc tikai NATO jāmokās ar jautājumu “kā atbildēsim”? Uz eskalāciju var atbildēt tikai ar TĀLĀKU eskalāciju. Un tai jābūt ticamai. Tad “eskalēt” pirmajiem negribēsies.


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