vara bungas: Diezgan reāli (jo finansists) pušu izredžu novērtējuma procenti. UA nevar zaudēt, bet nav spēka uzvarēt, RU ir spēks uzvarēt, bet var zaudēt.
[..] Given what you’re saying, what is a reasonable way to think about the endgame?
There is no reasonable way for this thing to end. There’s only an unreasonable way.
It’s either he [putin] ends up taking over Ukraine and then moving his way toward the Baltic countries to challenge us at NATO — or for him to be defeated by Ukraine and then having the Russian people overthrow him because he was the weak guy who couldn’t beat Ukraine.
How do you handicap those two options?
I think each of those options has a 15 percent probability.
What’s the remaining 70 percent probability?
That he [putin] and the Ukrainians and all of us are stuck in this low simmer. It’s not going to be at the same level of awfulness that it is right now, but at this low simmering conflict that just goes on and on and on for years. [..]